Research
How the Iran War Sequel Reshaped UAE - Saudi Arabia Rivalry
May 9, 2026The 2026 Iran war — which began on 28 February with a coordinated US-Israeli operation against the Islamic Republic and continued through a fragile 8 April ceasefire still being violated as of May 2026 — has fundamentally transformed Saudi Arabia's strategic position. Riyadh emerged from the conflict facing four simultaneous shocks: direct Iranian missile and drone strikes on Saudi territory, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the United Arab Emirates' departure from OPEC, and a deepening rupture with Abu Dhabi over divergent visions for the post-war Gulf. This analysis examines how Saudi Arabia weathered the conflict, recalibrated its position toward Iran, navigated the structural threats to its Vision 2030 economic transformation, and now confronts a more complicated relationship with both the United States and the United Arab Emirates. The central argument is that Saudi Arabia, despite its restrained posture during the war, has emerged as the de facto stabiliser of a fractured Gulf order — but at significant cost. The kingdom's hedging strategy preserved its diplomatic flexibility but exposed the limits of its security partnerships. Riyadh's post-war reassessment now centres on three priorities: building genuine deterrence capability against Iran, reorienting energy infrastructure away from the Strait of Hormuz, and managing a Gulf rivalry with the UAE that has become structural rather than tactical.
No War, No Peace
April 25, 2026This article examines the U.S.–Iran ceasefire not as a path to peace, but as a fragile pause in a wider coercive confrontation. It argues that American air power, naval blockade, and economic pressure have damaged Iran but failed to force political compliance, while Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has turned the conflict into a global energy, security, and alliance crisis. The article highlights the hidden costs of the war, including U.S. missile-stockpile depletion, the limits of military coercion, the rise of Chinese satellite intelligence, AI-driven propaganda, and growing Gulf doubts about reliance on American security guarantees. Its central argument is that both sides are trapped in a reciprocal coercion cycle, where each pressure tactic reinforces the other side’s resolve rather than producing compromise.
War in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Implications for Central Asia
April 16, 2026This article examines how the war in Iran and instability in the Strait of Hormuz could affect Central Asia, especially Kyrgyzstan, through indirect but serious economic and food-security pressures. It argues that even without direct involvement in the conflict, Kyrgyzstan is vulnerable to rising fertilizer and energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and lower agricultural productivity, showing how distant geopolitical crises can create immediate local consequences in an interconnected global economy.
Hungary’s 2026 Election: Domestic Contest, European Consequences
March 26, 2026This report examines Hungary’s 2026 parliamentary election as a critical juncture shaped by domestic political competition, institutional constraints, and geopolitical pressures. It analyses campaign dynamics, external influence narratives, and potential post-election scenarios to assess how the outcome may affect Hungary’s governance trajectory and the European Union’s cohesion and strategic direction.
Adaptation Under Fire: Operational Reality and the Limits of Airpower
March 24, 2026This report analyzes the evolving dynamics of the Iran war, focusing on the gap between operational outcomes and strategic realities. It demonstrates how Iran has preserved and adapted its military capabilities despite sustained airstrikes, shifting toward more resilient and efficient systems of warfare. Beyond the battlefield, the report examines how Tehran has leveraged energy disruption, internal power consolidation, and time asymmetry to build strategic leverage. Rather than portraying a decisive victory for any side, the analysis highlights a structural transformation in the conflict—where endurance, adaptation, and systemic influence increasingly shape outcomes. It also explores the implications of Iran’s emerging strategic posture, including escalation dynamics, proxy resilience, and the growing significance of the nuclear threshold in redefining regional power balances.