Blog
US–Israel Strike Iran: War Erupts Across the Gulf
February 28, 2026On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes across Iran, triggering immediate retaliation and expanding the conflict beyond bilateral confrontation. Iranian missiles targeted Israeli cities and reportedly struck US military installations in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, marking a dangerous regional escalation. With airspace closures, rising energy risks and rhetoric pointing toward regime change, the crisis now threatens to reshape Middle Eastern security dynamics and draw multiple actors into a broader war
War on Iran: Energy Shock and Global Order
January 24, 2026As tensions with Iran approach a breaking point, this report explores what a U.S.–Israeli military strike would mean for global energy flows, financial markets, and international order. It argues that conflict would not remain regional: disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger oil price shocks, inflation spikes, and strategic realignments from Europe to Asia. The study connects Iran’s internal crisis with external military risks, showing how domestic unrest, nuclear escalation, and great-power competition are converging into a single global threat.
Iran at the Breaking Point: Protest Dynamics and Plausible Scenarios Ahead
January 9, 2026This report analyses Iran’s January 2026 protest wave as a systemic political rupture rather than a cyclical episode of unrest. Drawing exclusively on contemporaneous reporting and analysis, it examines the drivers of nationwide mobilisation, the regime’s calibrated use of repression and information blackouts, the role of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s uncompromising posture, and the impact of external pressure from the United States. The article also assesses emerging transition scenarios—from intensified crackdown to post–Islamic Republic pathways—highlighting the risks and possibilities facing Iran at a moment when the existing political order has lost its capacity to command legitimacy.
Iran–Israel Confrontation after the UN Snapback Sanctions
October 1, 2025This article provides a detailed foreign policy analysis of the escalating confrontation between Iran and Israel following the reimposition of UN snapback sanctions in September 2025. It examines the collapse of the JCPOA nuclear framework, Iran’s accelerating executions of alleged Mossad agents, Israel’s heightened security posture, and the broader geopolitical role of Russia and China. The analysis highlights the interplay of military, intelligence, and domestic pressures shaping both states, while underscoring the risks of miscalculation and renewed conflict in the absence of diplomacy or effective monitoring.
Alaska Summit: Trump and Putin Open Dialogue but Deliver No Breakthrough
August 17, 2025The August 15 Alaska summit between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was marked by symbolism and cautious dialogue rather than concrete results. While both leaders described the talks as “productive,” no ceasefire or formal agreements were reached, though Trump signalled a shift toward pursuing a comprehensive peace deal. The meeting drew mixed reactions worldwide: NATO allies and EU leaders reaffirmed unwavering support for Ukraine, China welcomed dialogue, and Russia framed the summit as a diplomatic success. Domestically, U.S. reactions were polarized along partisan lines, while Russian officials celebrated the optics of engagement. Looking ahead, Trump has invited Ukraine and European leaders to Washington, with discussions expected to lay the groundwork for a potential trilateral summit with Putin.