Publications

From Central Asia to Caspian: Azerbaijan’s Integration in Regional Geopolitics

The expansion of the Central Asian consultative format to include Azerbaijan (which will take the Chairmanship for 2027) creates new opportunities for regional connectivity, economic integration and strategic diversification. Its long-term significance, however, will depend on whether political commitments translate into functioning transport networks, joint industries and measurable economic benefits.

Centre blog.

India in Central Asia: Strategic autonomy in Eurasia’s changing geopolitics?

India’s engagement with Central Asia is increasingly acquiring a security dimension that goes beyond traditional military cooperation. Geography, the instability emanating from Afghanistan, terrorism, drug trafficking, cybercrime and the changing balance of power in Eurasia have created a broad convergence of interests between India and the Central Asian republics. At the same time, the region is navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical environment shaped by Russia, China, the United States and the European Union. For India, this makes Central Asia not merely an extended neighbourhood, but an important component of its wider Eurasian strategic outlook.

Centre blog.

The Guarantor Steps Back: the Gulf states after American primacy

America has stopped acting as the Gulf's security guarantor. With Hormuz, the East-West pipeline and Bab al-Mandab all closed or struck by Iran or its allies, the Gulf states are left with no bypass and no protector.

Centre blog.

The Saudi Kingdom Has No Way Out

Saudi Arabia built two routes out of a war zone and lost both within eleven days. This assessment traces how a thirty-year hedge against the Strait of Hormuz collapsed into a single, indefensible point of failure.

Centre research.

The Houthis Close the Gate

On the morning of 10 September 2026 the Houthi forces, who call themselves Ansar Allah, entered the port city of Mocha on Yemen’s Red Sea coast and took the port and the airport without a serious fight, because the Saudi backed government forces holding the city had already withdrawn during the night. Three Yemeni government sources confirmed the loss to Reuters, and the government itself said nothing for most of the day, which in this war is usually the clearest confirmation of all. Mocha was not an ordinary town. It had been in the hands of the anti Houthi coalition since early 2017, it was the main military and logistical base of Tariq Saleh’s National Resistance Forces on the western coast, and before that it had served as a base for the United Arab Emirates. Losing it removes the last significant government anchor on the Red Sea, and it sits between sixty and seventy five kilometres north of the Bab al-Mandab strait.

Centre blog.

Putin's Three-Day Favour

On the evening of 5 September 2026 the American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner sat down with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin, and the meeting ran for more than three hours. Before it began, the Russian president made a point of telling his guests that Kyiv had not been struck since midnight. It was offered as a gesture of good faith, and much of the reporting that followed described it as a ceasefire. It was not a ceasefire. It was a decision to stop hitting one city for three days, taken for the duration of a visit, and everything that lay outside that narrow line continued exactly as before. The distinction matters more than it might appear, because the shape of the pause tells us a great deal about how Russia understands the war, what it is willing to trade, and what it is not.

Centre blog.

Russia-Ukraine: The War Turns to Strangulation

The war has changed shape. Neither side can move the front line in any way that decides the outcome, so both have shifted their main effort to destroying the other’s economy from the air and at sea. Russia is closing Ukraine’s sea exports by attacking merchant ships rather than ports. Ukraine is burning Russian refineries and airbases at ranges that now reach the Gulf of Finland. Two developments in the last forty-eight hours matter more than anything else in this report. Ukraine struck the KINEF refinery at Kirishi in Leningrad Oblast, which is one of the largest refineries in Russia, and it did so as part of a mass attack reaching towards St Petersburg. At the same time Ukraine disclosed intelligence that the Kremlin has ordered its military to prepare ground offensives against Kyiv and Chernihiv. The two facts point in opposite directions, and holding both is the analytical problem of the moment. Ukraine is inflicting deeper damage on Russia than at any previous point in the war, while simultaneously warning that Russia is preparing to widen it. A note on sources appears at the end, because the material for this period comes in three very different tiers and they should not be read alike.

Centre blog.

The Russia-Ukraine War: Battlefield Developments, August 1–15, 2026

Two and a half years into Russia's full-scale invasion, and roughly ten weeks into its 2026 spring-summer offensive, the front line barely moved in the first half of August. Ukraine's DeepState monitoring group recorded Russian net gains of about 36–88 km² in July (estimates vary because of reporting lag), a rate of advance of roughly 1.2 km² per day — glacial by any measure, and a pace the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says has produced no operationally significant breakthrough despite Russia's stated ambition of enveloping Ukraine's "Fortress Belt" cities in Donetsk Oblast from the southwest via the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya axes. That slow crawl came at a steep price. Ukraine's General Staff put Russian losses in July at roughly 42,900 killed and wounded, the highest monthly figure of 2026 and among the costliest months of the war. These are Kyiv's own figures and cannot be independently verified — a caveat worth stressing, since neither side publishes reliable casualty data and both have incentives to shade the numbers. Independent OSINT trackers, including the pro-Ukrainian account AMK Mapping, cited similar figures (around 43,000) while noting it was the second-worst month for Russian losses since January 2025. Russian-aligned commentators, such as the podcast Russians With Attitude, have pushed back on the reflexive trust some place in Ukrainian General Staff numbers — a fair point of methodological skepticism that applies to battlefield claims from both sides.

Centre blog.

The War Moves Off the Battlefield

Between 1 and 16 August the United States and Iran barely fought, and neither moved. What changed instead were the instruments. Tehran extended the reach of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority — permits, forms, fees, a proposed coordination centre with Oman — while Washington tightened a naval blockade it has begun describing as permanent and floated declaring Hormuz American territory. Brent fell to $87 regardless. RCSGS examines a war that has migrated from the battlefield to the filing cabinet, and why both administrative regimes undercut themselves.

Centre blog.

Inside the Hormuz Arrangement

The week of 2 to 9 August was the quietest of the war and, for that reason, the most consequential. no American strike inside Iran was confirmed on any night of it, the first sustained pause since the June truce collapsed, and into that silence stepped something the conflict has not produced in five and a half months: an actual text. Iran and Oman agreed on the coordinates of shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, a draft arrangement moved from the two foreign ministries into Iran's parliament, and by Thursday President Trump was telling reporters in the Oval Office that "the war's got to end pretty soon" and that he did not think Iran "can go much longer." Yet by Saturday the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council had published a list of conditions for reopening the strait so expansive that it reads less like the price of a shipping agreement than the price of the war itself, and on Sunday Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi ruled out direct talks with Washington for the time being. The gap between those two facts — a technical arrangement all but finished, and a political precondition list that has grown rather than shrunk — is the story of the week. What follows sets out what is actually in the Hormuz arrangement, who has to approve it, why Washington cannot accept it as reported, and what the markets made of the whole thing.

Centre blog.

Ukraine’s Air Defence Crisis Comes Into View

Russia's 1 August barrage on Kyiv — 22 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 4 Zircon hypersonics from four separate launch axes — drew a single Patriot interceptor in response. RCSGS examines what that number reveals about Ukraine's depleting interceptor stocks, Russia's four-layer saturation strategy, and why the deep-strike campaign no longer needs a front line to advance.

Centre blog.

Cultural Respect as a Political Question in Southeast Asia

Two incidents in Southeast Asia — Italian students mocking a Thai woman on Bangkok's BTS Skytrain, and Dutch digital nomads accused of barring Indonesians from a Bali running club — escalated within days into embassy apologies, police complaints, and immigration blacklisting. This article argues that both cases are less about etiquette than about power: who sets the terms of behaviour in someone else's country, and whether economic contribution can substitute for respect. It examines how Thailand and Indonesia asserted that hospitality has limits, and what this means for tourism, educational exchange, and digital nomadism across the region.

Centre blog.

Refineries for Cities:Russia-Ukraine War in July

Russia’s aggregate territorial gains in July were among the smallest of the war — between a net loss of 1 square mile and a net gain of 10, depending on the tracker — but they were heavily concentrated on a single axis east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The fall of the last Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar gave Moscow full control of Donetsk oblast’s Bakhmut district, the fifth of eight it now holds outright. Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign has taken an estimated 20–40 percent of Russian refining capacity offline and is now Kyiv’s principal source of strategic leverage. The air war is spilling across NATO borders: a Russian cruise missile detonated in eastern Poland on 30 July, and Romanian F-16s downed three Russian drones in three days in late July. Washington and Kyiv are preparing an air-domain ceasefire proposal for Moscow. The Kremlin says it is “too early” to comment; Putin’s stated conditions are unchanged.

Centre blog.

Azerbaijan–Kyrgyzstan Ties Ahead of the 2026 Central Asia–Azerbaijan Summit

Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan are turning shared Turkic heritage into concrete economic integration, driven by the $100 million Azerbaijan-Kyrgyz Development Fund and the emerging China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway–Middle Corridor link. Whether the partnership delivers will depend less on capital than on regulatory reform, logistics efficiency, and competition from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Türkiye.

Centre blog.

A Week of Deepening US–Iran Strikes as Oil Tops $100

The week of 17 to 24 July was among the most violent of the entire war. American forces struck Iran on thirteen consecutive nights and pushed deeper inland than at any earlier point, Iran fired missiles and drones back across five countries, the Houthis opened a second front by attacking Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, and the United States lost its first troops to Iranian fire since March. By the morning of 24 July, as US forces completed that thirteenth straight night of bombing, Iran had once again rejected an American ceasefire offer. Almost five months after the war began with Operation Epic Fury on 28 February, the June truce that was meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is now dead in all but name, and the plain truth is that neither side is winning while neither is willing to stop. What follows sets out how the week unfolded, what was damaged and who was killed, what Washington and Tehran are actually saying, and where the conflict appears to be heading.

Centre research.

The Ceasefire Collapses: A Week of US–Iran Escalation Over the Strait of Hormuz

This past week may be remembered as the moment the June ceasefire between the United States and Iran finally fell apart. In the space of seven days, the two sides went from an uneasy truce to near-nightly air strikes. Iran fired missiles and drones at half a dozen Gulf states, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to commercial shipping, and President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire "over" — then, on Monday, announced that the United States would reinstate a blockade of Iranian ships and act as the strait's self-appointed "guardian." Oil prices rose, and a peace deal that had looked within reach only a month ago now feels like a relic of a calmer moment. What follows is a plain account of how the week unfolded, what Trump actually said, what happened on the ground today, and what it all adds up to.

Centre blog.

Kostiantynivka and the Freezing Front

This assessment looks at where the Donbas front stands in early July 2026, with the fight for Kostiantynivka at its centre. It then turns to Ukraine’s growing campaign of long-range strikes inside Russia, and asks what both mean for where the war is heading. Claims from Moscow and Kyiv are treated as claims and weighed against independent monitoring; where the numbers are disputed, the text gives a range rather than a false precision the data cannot support.

Centre blog.

Cultural Awareness in a Connected World

In an increasingly interconnected world, cultural awareness has become more than a desirable social skill; it is a strategic necessity. Globalization, mass tourism, digital communication, international business, and migration have brought people from different cultural, ethnic, and historical backgrounds into daily contact. This interconnectedness has created unprecedented opportunities for cooperation, but it has also increased the likelihood that ignorance of cultural norms, historical sensitivities, and social values will trigger controversy, diplomatic tension, economic loss, and social division. Recent incidents in Mexico, South Korea, China, and Thailand show how the absence of cultural awareness can have consequences that reach well beyond individual mistakes. They demonstrate that cultural ignorance is no longer confined to private interactions; in the age of social media, local actions quickly become global news. These cases also point to an important lesson: cultural competence is not simply about political correctness. It is about preserving trust, maintaining social cohesion, and fostering peaceful relations among societies.

Centre blog.

Battle for Kostiantynivka and the Donbas Fortress Belt

After eleven months of grinding attrition, the Russian Armed Forces have broken into Kostiantynivka, the southern anchor of Ukraine’s “fortress belt” in Donetsk Oblast, and are steadily overrunning the urban area. The breach is strategically significant for one reason above all: it is the first of the four fortress-belt cities to be seriously penetrated, and it opens the southern approach to the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration — the last major bloc of Ukrainian-held urban terrain in the east and the backbone of Ukraine’s defence since 2014. This assessment examines (i) how the battle developed and where it stands, (ii) the operational and strategic meaning of the city for each side, (iii) the wider campaign for the fortress belt and the two-pincer envelopment Russia is attempting, (iv) the structural vulnerabilities the battle has exposed in Ukraine’s drone-centric defence, (v) the interaction between the battlefield and the parallel diplomatic track, and (vi) four scenarios for the coming six to twelve months. The central judgment of this assessment is that the fall of Kostiantynivka would be tactically decisive but strategically incremental: it materially advances Russia’s Donbas campaign and strengthens Moscow’s negotiating claim over the whole of Donetsk, but it does not by itself collapse Ukraine’s front, and on present rates of advance the complete reduction of the fortress belt remains a multi-year undertaking rather than an imminent one.

Centre blog.

What the US-Iran Deal Means, Who Gains, and Where It Could Break

Executive summary. On June 14–18, 2026, after a roughly four-month war touched off by U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran in February, Washington and Tehran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU) to halt hostilities. It is a framework, not a final peace: it suspends the Strait of Hormuz blockade, opens a 60-day window to negotiate Iran's enriched-uranium stockpile, and dangles sanctions relief, asset releases, and a reconstruction fund of at least $300bn. Direct talks in Switzerland produced a “roadmap” toward a final deal but left the hardest questions — enrichment, inspections, and who controls Hormuz — unresolved. Bottom line: The MoU is, in the words of one assessment, “all carrot and no stick.” It trades cash and legitimacy for nuclear restraint that is promised but not yet verified. Iran's clerical-military leadership emerges intact and cash-hungry; the United States gets lower oil prices and an exit from an unpopular war; Israel and Iran hawks see strategic objectives abandoned. The agreement could endure if economic incentives hold — or unravel on inspections, a Lebanon flare-up, or domestic politics in either capital.

Centre blog.

The Islamabad Memorandum: What an Iran-US Agreement Would and Would Not Do

After more than three months of war and two months of an on-and-off ceasefire, the United States and Iran say they are close to signing a written understanding. The document is a memorandum of understanding now commonly called the Islamabad Memorandum, after the role Pakistan played alongside Qatar in mediating. Iranian officials describe it as fourteen points across fewer than two pages. Pakistan's prime minister said a final text had been reached and that it could be signed electronically, without a ceremony and without officials from the two sides meeting in person. Each government would announce it separately. As of mid-June, neither Washington nor Tehran had formally confirmed a final version.

Centre blog.

People-to-People Diplomacy still matters in Central Asia

On 20th of May, The United Nations General Assembly adopted by consensus Kyrgyzstan's resolution "Peaceful Resolution of Border Disputes," prepared jointly with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and with the support of more than 40 countries. The document reflects the experience of Central Asian countries in peacefully resolving border issues through dialogue, negotiations, and international law. The resolution emphasizes that border disputes should be resolved exclusively peacefully and by mutual consent. Bishkek believes that Central Asia's experience can serve as an example of good-neighborliness and a contribution to international security. The text also recalls Kyrgyzstan's progress in resolving border issues with its neighbors. In 2023, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan completed the delimitation of their shared border, resolving issues around the Kempir-Abad reservoir and territorial exchange. Particular attention is paid to the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, which has previously seen armed clashes, including the September 2022 conflict that resulted in numerous casualties and mass displacement. Following this, the parties intensified negotiations, fully agreed on the disputed areas by the end of 2024, and in March 2025, Presidents Sadyr Japarov and Emomali Rahmon signed a border agreement and reopened the closed checkpoints.

Centre blog.

Endgame Without an End

Eighty-eight days after American and Israeli aircraft struck Iran in what was billed as a campaign to break the Islamic Republic, the war has produced an outcome few in Washington or Jerusalem anticipated: a wounded but intact regime, a humiliated coalition, and a draft agreement that reads more like a managed retreat than a victory. Negotiators in Doha are circling a memorandum of understanding that, if signed, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, and defer everything else — nuclear stockpiles, sanctions architecture, the war in Lebanon — to a sixty-day negotiating window that may well be extended indefinitely. This is not the agreement Donald Trump promised. It is not the dismantlement Benjamin Netanyahu sought. It is, by the candid admission of one senior US official quoted by Axios, a deal built on “relief for performance” — a polite phrase for the recognition that further coercion has reached the point of diminishing returns. The question now is whether even this modest framework can survive the political minefields on both sides over the coming days.

Centre blog.

The Empty Offer: Latest on Russia-Ukraine War

On May 9, surrounded by the pageantry of Russia's 81st Victory Day, Vladimir Putin stepped before reporters in Moscow and announced that the war in Ukraine was "coming to an end." He said he was ready to meet Volodymyr Zelensky — in Moscow, or in a neutral country, any time. It sounded, on the surface, like an opening. Read the fine print and it was something else entirely: Putin would meet Zelensky only once the final terms of a settlement had already been agreed. The meeting he was offering was not a negotiation. It was a signing ceremony for a deal Ukraine had not made and would not make. That empty offer is the image that defines May 2026. The choreography of diplomacy performed with full conviction; the architecture of peace absent. Three tracks — military, diplomatic, and geopolitical — moved at once in this period, and in opposing directions. Reading them together is the clearest guide to what comes next.

Centre blog.

The Diplomacy Cliff: Strategic Assessment of the US–Iran Endgame

Eighty-two days into the most consequential Middle Eastern confrontation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran stand at a diplomatic cliff edge. On May 20, President Donald Trump gave Tehran "two to three days" to accept a framework agreement; Iran responded by warning that any renewed war would bring "many more surprises" and could open "new fronts." Vice President JD Vance, the same day, said both sides had made "a lot of progress." The contradictory signals capture the moment precisely: a deal is closer than at any point since the February 28 launch of Operation Epic Fury, yet the structural distance between Washington's and Tehran's positions on the core nuclear and Hormuz questions remains nearly unbridgeable. This brief assesses (i) the probability and contours of a near-term agreement, (ii) the diplomatic mechanics now underway, (iii) the odds of resumed military confrontation, (iv) Iran's covert military reconstitution, (v) the positions of the key actors — Washington, Tehran, Jerusalem, the GCC, Beijing, Moscow, Islamabad — (vi) the evolving Strait of Hormuz crisis and its global market impact, and (vii) four scenarios for the next six months. The central judgment of this brief is that the most likely outcome is a partial, Hormuz-first arrangement that defers the nuclear question — a structurally unstable settlement that buys time but plants the seed of the next crisis.

Centre research.

Armenia's 2026 Elections: A Choice Between Peace and Renewed Confrontation

Armenia's parliamentary elections on June 7, 2026 represent a strategic crossroads with consequences extending far beyond domestic politics. The vote will effectively function as a referendum on the most consequential question facing Armenian society: whether to consolidate the peace process with Azerbaijan and complete the country's strategic reorientation toward the West, or to return to a Russian-aligned posture promoted by an opposition that opposes the peace settlement. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract party campaigns on a clear platform: finalizing the peace treaty with Azerbaijan that was initialed in Washington in August 2025, amending the Armenian constitution to align it with the requirements of regional normalization, and completing Armenia's integration with the European Union, the United States, and broader Euro-Atlantic structures. This approach reflects Pashinyan's recognition that the post-2020 strategic environment requires Armenia to adapt to new regional realities and build sustainable relations with its neighbors. The opposition—principally former president Robert Kocharyan's Armenia Alliance and Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan's Strong Armenia—offers a competing vision rooted in restoring close ties with Moscow, blocking constitutional reform, and resisting the peace settlement. This orientation, supported by Russian political and informational networks, would effectively halt the peace process and return Armenia to a confrontational posture that has produced repeated military setbacks over the past three decades. The electoral choice is therefore unusually clear. A decisive Pashinyan victory clears the path for constitutional amendment, peace treaty ratification, and Armenia's full integration into a normalized South Caucasus regional architecture. An opposition victory or a narrow Civil Contract win without constitutional majority would derail the peace process, reopen the door to Russian influence, and elevate the risk of renewed military confrontation that Armenia is poorly positioned to sustain. This analysis examines the electoral landscape, the constitutional reform requirement central to peace treaty ratification, the role of Karabakh Armenians who relocated to Armenia after September 2023, Russian interference strategies targeting the elections, and the broader strategic implications of what has become the most consequential vote in Armenia's post-Soviet history. The Electoral Landscape: A Race Defined by the Undecided Polling data ahead of the June 7 vote presents a competitive but increasingly favorable picture for the incumbent government. The most methodologically rigorous surveys—conducted by the Armenian Election Study for EVN Report in early May 2026—show Civil Contract commanding 32.5 percent of committed voters, with Strong Armenia at 10.1 percent, the Armenia Alliance at 4.4 percent, and Prosperous Armenia at 3.4 percent. These headline figures obscure the election's true dynamics. Approximately 40 percent of Armenian voters remain uncommitted, either declining to answer (25.4 percent) or stating they do not know (14.1 percent). The behavior of this bloc will determine the outcome. Advanced statistical modeling that accounts for the policy preferences and directional leanings of undecided voters suggests Civil Contract could secure between 40.7 percent and 51.1 percent of the vote under an 85 percent turnout scenario. The trajectory of Pashinyan's approval is favorable for the incumbent. His job approval has risen methodically across three polling waves—from 36 percent in February to 47.2 percent in March to 49 percent in May. Public perception of the country's direction has improved correspondingly: 44 percent now believe Armenia is headed in the right direction, against 30.9 percent who disagree. Among undecided voters specifically, 41 percent approve of Pashinyan's performance, representing a 5.5 percentage point increase over the previous polling wave. Opposition-aligned polling presents a different narrative. Surveys published by outlets sympathetic to the opposition place Civil Contract at 26 to 27 percent, with combined opposition forces theoretically capable of forming a coalition majority. The divergence between these polling streams reflects both genuine methodological differences and the politicization of electoral forecasting in an environment where polls function as campaign instruments. What remains undisputed across polling sources is that Civil Contract leads all individual parties, that the opposition remains fragmented across competing personalities and platforms, and that the undecided bloc holds the decisive vote. Citizen forecasting—a methodology that aggregates respondents' predictions about who will win—consistently indicates that a clear majority of Armenian voters expect Civil Contract to secure a parliamentary majority and form a single-party government.

Centre research.

How the Iran War Sequel Reshaped UAE - Saudi Arabia Rivalry

The 2026 Iran war — which began on 28 February with a coordinated US-Israeli operation against the Islamic Republic and continued through a fragile 8 April ceasefire still being violated as of May 2026 — has fundamentally transformed Saudi Arabia's strategic position. Riyadh emerged from the conflict facing four simultaneous shocks: direct Iranian missile and drone strikes on Saudi territory, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the United Arab Emirates' departure from OPEC, and a deepening rupture with Abu Dhabi over divergent visions for the post-war Gulf. This analysis examines how Saudi Arabia weathered the conflict, recalibrated its position toward Iran, navigated the structural threats to its Vision 2030 economic transformation, and now confronts a more complicated relationship with both the United States and the United Arab Emirates. The central argument is that Saudi Arabia, despite its restrained posture during the war, has emerged as the de facto stabiliser of a fractured Gulf order — but at significant cost. The kingdom's hedging strategy preserved its diplomatic flexibility but exposed the limits of its security partnerships. Riyadh's post-war reassessment now centres on three priorities: building genuine deterrence capability against Iran, reorienting energy infrastructure away from the Strait of Hormuz, and managing a Gulf rivalry with the UAE that has become structural rather than tactical.

Centre research.

No War, No Peace

This article examines the U.S.–Iran ceasefire not as a path to peace, but as a fragile pause in a wider coercive confrontation. It argues that American air power, naval blockade, and economic pressure have damaged Iran but failed to force political compliance, while Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has turned the conflict into a global energy, security, and alliance crisis. The article highlights the hidden costs of the war, including U.S. missile-stockpile depletion, the limits of military coercion, the rise of Chinese satellite intelligence, AI-driven propaganda, and growing Gulf doubts about reliance on American security guarantees. Its central argument is that both sides are trapped in a reciprocal coercion cycle, where each pressure tactic reinforces the other side’s resolve rather than producing compromise.

Centre research.

The Iran Ceasefire: A Pause, Not a Settlement

This article examines the fragile ceasefire between Iran and the United States as a temporary pause rather than a lasting settlement. It argues that despite severe military and economic pressure, Iran has not abandoned its core red lines on uranium enrichment, missiles, and strategic leverage in the Strait of Hormuz, while the post-war consolidation of hardline power has made diplomacy even more difficult. By exploring the limits of coercion, the risks of renewed escalation, and the narrow path toward a workable agreement, the article shows why the next phase of the crisis may be decided less by battlefield outcomes than by endurance, leverage, and political realism.

Centre blog.

War in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Implications for Central Asia

This article examines how the war in Iran and instability in the Strait of Hormuz could affect Central Asia, especially Kyrgyzstan, through indirect but serious economic and food-security pressures. It argues that even without direct involvement in the conflict, Kyrgyzstan is vulnerable to rising fertilizer and energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and lower agricultural productivity, showing how distant geopolitical crises can create immediate local consequences in an interconnected global economy.

Centre research.

The Islamabad Deadlock: U.S.–Iran Negotiations Under Ceasefire

This article examines the Islamabad meeting between the United States and Iran as a politically significant but inconclusive attempt to manage a dangerous postwar crisis. It argues that the talks stalled because both sides entered with incompatible assumptions about leverage, sovereignty, and acceptable compromise, while Pakistan emerged as an important mediator that helped preserve diplomacy without resolving the core disputes.

Centre blog.

The Iran War After the Ceasefire

This analytical report examines the post-ceasefire phase of the Iran war, focusing on the strategic role of the Strait of Hormuz, the Lebanon front, Gulf security vulnerabilities, Israel’s evolving position, and the broader regional and global consequences of the conflict.

Centre blog.

The US-Iran War and Iran’s War of Attrition

This report argues that the conflict has moved beyond its initial shock phase and entered a more dangerous stage defined by attrition, infrastructure warfare, and regional cost imposition. It explains why severe strikes on Iran have not produced decisive strategic control, why Hormuz remains the center of gravity, and why the war is drifting toward a longer and less controllable regional confrontation.

Centre blog.

Climate-Induced Migration as a Security Multiplier in Central Asia

This article examines how climate-induced migration is reshaping security dynamics in Central Asia. It argues that environmental mobility does not directly cause conflict, but acts as a threat multiplier by intensifying existing pressures linked to water scarcity, weak governance, socio-economic fragility, and border tensions. Focusing on transboundary water politics, rural-to-urban migration, and vulnerable regions such as the Fergana Valley, the article shows how climate stress can contribute to localized instability and test state capacity across the region.

Centre blog.

Hungary’s 2026 Election: Domestic Contest, European Consequences

This report examines Hungary’s 2026 parliamentary election as a critical juncture shaped by domestic political competition, institutional constraints, and geopolitical pressures. It analyses campaign dynamics, external influence narratives, and potential post-election scenarios to assess how the outcome may affect Hungary’s governance trajectory and the European Union’s cohesion and strategic direction.

Centre research.

Adaptation Under Fire: Operational Reality and the Limits of Airpower

This report analyzes the evolving dynamics of the Iran war, focusing on the gap between operational outcomes and strategic realities. It demonstrates how Iran has preserved and adapted its military capabilities despite sustained airstrikes, shifting toward more resilient and efficient systems of warfare. Beyond the battlefield, the report examines how Tehran has leveraged energy disruption, internal power consolidation, and time asymmetry to build strategic leverage. Rather than portraying a decisive victory for any side, the analysis highlights a structural transformation in the conflict—where endurance, adaptation, and systemic influence increasingly shape outcomes. It also explores the implications of Iran’s emerging strategic posture, including escalation dynamics, proxy resilience, and the growing significance of the nuclear threshold in redefining regional power balances.

Centre research.

A War That Refused to End Quickly

This article examines how the U.S.–Israeli campaign against Iran evolved from an expected short, coercive war into a prolonged conflict shaped by attrition, adaptation, and strategic asymmetry. It argues that despite significant military pressure, Iran has leveraged resilience, decentralized capabilities, and control over the Strait of Hormuz to reshape the battlefield and impose global economic costs. The analysis highlights the growing gap between tactical success and strategic outcomes, demonstrating why airpower and rapid escalation have failed to produce decisive results—and why the conflict is increasingly defined by endurance rather than victory.

Centre research.

Energy Warfare and Systemic Disruption:

This report analyses the 2026 Gulf crisis as a case of systemic energy warfare, where coordinated attacks on gas fields, LNG infrastructure, refineries, and maritime chokepoints have disrupted up to 20% of global LNG supply and sharply reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Integrating market data, infrastructure impacts, and geopolitical responses, it demonstrates how energy systems have become central instruments of conflict, triggering price spikes, market fragmentation, and policy reversals across Europe and Asia. The study highlights the growing gap between international legal norms and operational control of critical energy routes, revealing structural vulnerabilities in the global energy architecture.

Centre blog.

Killing the Coordinator: Iran After Larijani

The reported killing of Ali Larijani marks a major tactical blow to Iran’s leadership, but not a decisive turning point. This analysis explores how his removal weakens coordination and narrows diplomatic options, while ultimately reinforcing the resilience of a deeply institutionalized system.

Centre blog.

The Iran War: Global Strategic Consequences

This report examines the strategic, economic, and geopolitical implications of the ongoing confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran. It analyzes Iran’s institutional resilience, asymmetric military strategy, disruptions to global energy markets, and the broader consequences for supply chains and great-power competition.

Centre research.

The Iran War and Its Global Consequences

The escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran is rapidly reshaping the geopolitical and economic landscape. What began as a military campaign has evolved into a crisis affecting global energy markets, technology supply chains, and the balance of power among major states. This report examines the strategic ambiguity surrounding the war’s objectives, Iran’s doctrine of endurance, and the broader international consequences—from rising oil prices and disrupted trade routes to the indirect advantages gained by rival powers such as Russia.

Centre research.

The U.S.–Israel–Iran War: Strategic and Military Dynamics

This report provides a strategic and military assessment of the emerging U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict. It evaluates the operational developments, competing narratives, and regional implications of the war, highlighting the risks of escalation and the broader impact on Middle Eastern security and global stability.

Centre research.

US–Israel Strike Iran: War Erupts Across the Gulf

On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes across Iran, triggering immediate retaliation and expanding the conflict beyond bilateral confrontation. Iranian missiles targeted Israeli cities and reportedly struck US military installations in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, marking a dangerous regional escalation. With airspace closures, rising energy risks and rhetoric pointing toward regime change, the crisis now threatens to reshape Middle Eastern security dynamics and draw multiple actors into a broader war

Centre blog.

Playing with Fire: America, Iran, and the Next Middle East War

This report examines the accelerating confrontation between the United States and Iran as both sides move closer to a potentially transformative conflict. Drawing on expert analyses, regional perspectives, and recent strategic developments, it explores the motivations driving Washington and Tehran, the risks of miscalculation, and the strategic logic shaping possible military scenarios. It assesses Iran’s likely strike zones, America’s operational options, the role of regional and global powers, and the fragile domestic landscapes influencing decision-making in both capitals. Ultimately, the report argues that the crisis is defined less by inevitability than by ambiguity: unclear objectives, escalating coercion, and shrinking diplomatic space are creating a volatile environment in which misjudgment — rather than deliberate grand strategy — could ignite the next major Middle Eastern war.

Centre research.

When Diplomacy Meets Deterrence: Inside the Latest US–Iran Standoff

This report examines the fragile return of US–Iran negotiations amid escalating military pressure, regional mediation, and deep mutual mistrust. It analyses how diplomacy has resumed not as a sign of de-escalation, but as a last-ditch effort to avert a wider conflict, as both sides test each other’s red lines on nuclear constraints, missiles, regional influence, and internal repression. The report situates the talks within Iran’s internal unrest, the US military buildup in the region, and mounting fears among regional states that miscalculation could trigger an uncontrollable war stretching far beyond Iran itself.

Centre research.

War on Iran: Energy Shock and Global Order

As tensions with Iran approach a breaking point, this report explores what a U.S.–Israeli military strike would mean for global energy flows, financial markets, and international order. It argues that conflict would not remain regional: disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger oil price shocks, inflation spikes, and strategic realignments from Europe to Asia. The study connects Iran’s internal crisis with external military risks, showing how domestic unrest, nuclear escalation, and great-power competition are converging into a single global threat.

Centre blog.

Greenland and the End of Illusions in the Transatlantic Alliance

Greenland has emerged as an unlikely flashpoint in global politics. This report explores how US pressure over Greenland is reshaping transatlantic relations, accelerating Europe’s turn toward economic security, and intensifying competition with China and Russia in the Arctic. It shows how a dispute over sovereignty risks undermining NATO, weaponising trade, and eroding the rules-based order at a moment of mounting geopolitical instability.

Centre research.

The Russia–Ukraine War in 2026: Military Pressure and Diplomatic Uncertainty

This report examines the state of the Russia–Ukraine war in early 2026, analysing ongoing military operations, renewed diplomatic efforts, and evolving European security responses. It assesses the interaction between battlefield dynamics and peace initiatives, the implications of proposed postwar security arrangements, and the broader consequences for the European security order amid continued escalation and strategic uncertainty.

Centre research.

Iran at the Breaking Point: Protest Dynamics and Plausible Scenarios Ahead

This report analyses Iran’s January 2026 protest wave as a systemic political rupture rather than a cyclical episode of unrest. Drawing exclusively on contemporaneous reporting and analysis, it examines the drivers of nationwide mobilisation, the regime’s calibrated use of repression and information blackouts, the role of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s uncompromising posture, and the impact of external pressure from the United States. The article also assesses emerging transition scenarios—from intensified crackdown to post–Islamic Republic pathways—highlighting the risks and possibilities facing Iran at a moment when the existing political order has lost its capacity to command legitimacy.

Centre blog.

Iran–Israel Confrontation after the UN Snapback Sanctions

This article provides a detailed foreign policy analysis of the escalating confrontation between Iran and Israel following the reimposition of UN snapback sanctions in September 2025. It examines the collapse of the JCPOA nuclear framework, Iran’s accelerating executions of alleged Mossad agents, Israel’s heightened security posture, and the broader geopolitical role of Russia and China. The analysis highlights the interplay of military, intelligence, and domestic pressures shaping both states, while underscoring the risks of miscalculation and renewed conflict in the absence of diplomacy or effective monitoring.

Centre blog.

Alaska Summit: Trump and Putin Open Dialogue but Deliver No Breakthrough

The August 15 Alaska summit between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was marked by symbolism and cautious dialogue rather than concrete results. While both leaders described the talks as “productive,” no ceasefire or formal agreements were reached, though Trump signalled a shift toward pursuing a comprehensive peace deal. The meeting drew mixed reactions worldwide: NATO allies and EU leaders reaffirmed unwavering support for Ukraine, China welcomed dialogue, and Russia framed the summit as a diplomatic success. Domestically, U.S. reactions were polarized along partisan lines, while Russian officials celebrated the optics of engagement. Looking ahead, Trump has invited Ukraine and European leaders to Washington, with discussions expected to lay the groundwork for a potential trilateral summit with Putin.

Centre blog.

Ukraine at the Crossroads: Strategic Risks & Diplomatic Tensions

This report provides an in-depth assessment of the evolving war in Ukraine, integrating frontline military developments, the potential for Russian strategic breakthroughs in the Donbas, and the geopolitical stakes of the upcoming Alaska summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. It examines encirclement risks in key eastern cities, the growing role of drone warfare, NATO’s air defence gap, humanitarian concerns, and the diplomatic struggle over Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The analysis underscores the next six months as a decisive period that could redefine both the battlefield and the broader European security order.

Centre blog.

Breaking Bonds: Azerbaijan’s Bold Shift Away from Russia

This report delves into the escalating tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia, driven by key events like the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger plane and the deaths of Azerbaijani nationals in Russian custody. It explores Azerbaijan's growing independence and its move to strengthen ties with Turkey, the EU, and Ukraine. The report also highlights the broader geopolitical shifts in the South Caucasus, with Russia's influence waning and Azerbaijan positioning itself as a key player in the region. Ask ChatGPT

Centre blog.

Shifting Tides: The Evolving Russia-Ukraine Conflict

This article explores the shifting dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war, focusing on key developments, including international responses, evolving military strategies, and diplomatic efforts. It highlights President Trump's recent shift in policy towards Ukraine, Russia’s growing military challenges, and the changing geopolitical landscape in regions like the South Caucasus. The piece also delves into the impact of military aid, sanctions, and the ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, providing an in-depth analysis of the conflict's broader implications.

Centre blog.

Outcomes of the China-Central Asia Summit in Astana

The Second China-Central Asia Summit, held in Astana on June 16–17, 2025, marked a significant step in strengthening China's ties with Central Asian countries. The summit produced a broad set of agreements across trade, infrastructure, transport, customs, and cultural cooperation. Key projects include the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and major infrastructure upgrades, backed by over 1.5 billion yuan in Chinese funding. While the partnership offers economic opportunities, it also raises concerns about growing dependence on China and geopolitical competition, particularly with Russia, the US, and the EU. The summit reflects China's expanding role in the region and sets the stage for deeper, long-term engagement.

Centre blog.

Operation Rising Lion and the Escalating Israel-Iran Conflict

This article provides an in-depth analysis of the escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran following Israel’s launch of Operation Rising Lion on June 13, 2025. The operation, ordered by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and senior leadership, resulting in significant casualties, including top Iranian generals and nuclear scientists. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities and energy infrastructure, intensifying regional tensions. The conflict has raised fears of a broader Middle East war, disrupted global oil markets, and drawn in international powers, including the United States. The situation remains volatile, with uncertain outcomes for regional stability and global security.

Centre blog.

Kashmir at the Crossroads: Escalation, Ceasefire, and the Path to Peace

This report delves into the recent escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, tracing the historical roots of the conflict and examining the military standoff in May 2025. It analyzes the role of international mediation, particularly by the United States, in brokering a ceasefire, while exploring the deeper issues surrounding territorial claims, nuclear risks, and human rights abuses. The report also discusses the complex dynamics between India, Pakistan, and other global powers like China, offering insights into the ongoing crisis and potential pathways toward a lasting resolution.

Centre blog.

Diplomatic Stalemate: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Road to Ceasefire

This report delves into the ongoing diplomatic and military developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, analyzing the recent ceasefire proposal backed by European leaders, Russia's rejection, and the shifting dynamics of international involvement. It explores the strategic challenges, including the role of the U.S., the future of NATO, and the potential for peace negotiations amid escalating tensions.

Centre blog.

U.S.-Iran Negotiations and the Broader Middle Eastern Landscape

This paper explores the evolving dynamics of U.S.-Iran relations, focusing on the shifting geopolitical landscape, the intricacies of nuclear diplomacy, and the strategic calculations of both nations in the context of regional security. It examines the impact of Donald Trump’s unorthodox foreign policy, particularly regarding Iran, and analyzes the critical negotiations and challenges surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. Additionally, it investigates the broader implications of these diplomatic efforts, particularly the regional responses and the internal political dynamics within both the U.S. and Iran. This paper argues that while the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran face significant obstacles, diplomatic engagement offers a more sustainable path compared to the alternative of military conflict or a nuclear-armed Iran.

Centre research.

Russia’s War in Ukraine: Economic Strain and Military Escalation

This report delves into the profound impact of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine on its economy and military strategy. With a focus on the significant financial strain caused by falling oil prices and the heavy costs of war, the report also examines the intensification of Russia’s military offensive and its geopolitical implications. As Russia faces growing economic difficulties and international isolation, the conflict's future remains uncertain, and the risk of further escalation looms. This analysis highlights the complex challenges Russia must navigate as it continues its military campaign amidst financial and political turbulence.

Centre blog.

Southeast Asian Human Trafficking Targets Central Asians in Cyber Scams

This article explores the growing threat of human trafficking across Southeast Asia, focusing on a recent case where Central Asian citizens fell victim to cyber scams. Promised high-paying jobs abroad, they were instead trafficked to Myanmar and forced to work in illegal call centers. Through coordinated diplomatic efforts, the victims were successfully repatriated, highlighting the critical need for vigilance when considering overseas job offers. This case serves as a stark reminder of the dangers of human trafficking and the importance of international cooperation in combating this crime.

Centre blog.

The Impact of Donald Trump’s Tariffs on Global Trade and the U.S. Economy

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the recent tariff increases announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on April 2, 2025, and their potential impact on global trade and the U.S. economy. It examines the underlying economic goals behind the tariffs, such as generating government revenue, encouraging domestic production, and reshaping global power dynamics. The report also discusses the immediate effects on global industries, inflation, and consumer prices, as well as the long-term consequences for global trade. Finally, it highlights the responses from Europe and other global players to these protectionist measures and the broader implications for international relations and economic stability.

Centre blog.

From the Fall of the Syrian Arab Republic to Genocide: Lessons for Central Asia

This article explores the lessons for Central Asia drawn from the geopolitical dynamics and conflicts in Syria and Ukraine. It examines the rapid technological changes in modern warfare and the complex international contradictions that influence regional stability. The author highlights the key threats faced by Kyrgyzstan and Central Asian countries, including military challenges, radicalization, and external pressures. The article also provides policy recommendations for defense modernization, regional cooperation, and economic development to enhance stability and security in the region. Through these lessons, the article underscores the importance of adapting to technological advancements and strengthening regional ties for a more secure future.

Centre research.

U.S. Military Deployments to Bahrain, Escalating Tensions with Iran

This report provides a strategic assessment of recent U.S. military deployments to Bahrain, escalating tensions with Iran, and the potential for military action against Iran’s nuclear program. It examines the scale and purpose of U.S. airlift operations, the integration of air defense systems, and the broader military posture in the Middle East. Additionally, it analyzes Iran’s nuclear facilities, possible strike scenarios, and the geopolitical consequences of military escalation. The report concludes with an evaluation of potential outcomes, highlighting the critical balance between deterrence, conflict preparedness, and diplomatic efforts.

Centre research.

Ukraine at the Crossroads: Diplomacy, Conflict, and the Shifting Global Order

The Ukraine conflict remains a focal point of global geopolitics, with diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Russia yielding limited results. As Europe grapples with divisions and strategic challenges, the war on the ground intensifies, with both sides reporting significant military actions and casualties. This report synthesizes key developments, from failed ceasefire attempts and shifting alliances to the broader implications for international relations and the global order.

Centre blog.

Europe’s Strategic Response to the Ukraine Conflict

This report examines the evolving responses from European and U.S. leaders to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. It explores the potential deployment of peacekeeping forces, the diplomatic hurdles in negotiating a ceasefire, and the contrasting approaches to dealing with Russia. With insights from leaders like Macron, Starmer, Merkel, and U.S. figures, the report offers a comprehensive look at the international strategies aimed at securing Ukraine’s future and addressing broader geopolitical concerns. The complexities of military support, trust, and negotiations set the stage for a challenging path toward peace.

Centre blog.

China's Growing Economic Influence in Uzbekistan: Opportunity or Overreach?

As China solidifies its position as Uzbekistan’s leading foreign investor, concerns are mounting over its growing dominance—particularly in the mining sector. A recent gold mining auction, where Chinese-linked companies acquired multiple sites at unusually low starting prices, has sparked debates over transparency and economic sovereignty. While Chinese investment brings infrastructure, jobs, and economic growth, experts warn of rising debt dependency and the risks of over-reliance on a single foreign partner. Can Uzbekistan strike a balance between economic development and safeguarding its national interests?

Centre blog.

The War in Ukraine and the European Response in Light of U.S. Disengagement

As the U.S. shifts its stance on Ukraine under Donald Trump, Europe faces an urgent reckoning. With Washington suspending military aid and signaling rapprochement with Moscow, European leaders scramble to fill the void, yet divisions persist over strategy and commitment. Can France, the UK, and Germany forge a credible defense plan, or will Ukraine be left vulnerable to Russian advances? This report dissects the geopolitical upheaval reshaping the war and Europe’s role in defining its own security future.

Centre blog.

A Diplomatic Earthquake: Trump-Zelensky Clash and Its Global Fallout

The high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House turned into a diplomatic disaster, with Trump publicly rebuking Zelensky, canceling security agreements, and hinting at withdrawing U.S. support for Ukraine. The shocking confrontation has deepened political divisions in the U.S., fractured transatlantic relations, and forced Europe to reconsider its security strategy. With Republicans split, Democrats outraged, and European leaders scrambling to respond, the incident marks a turning point in global geopolitics and the future of the war in Ukraine.

Centre blog.

Germany's Snap Elections: A Nation at Crossroads

This research article examines why Germany called snap elections amid political paralysis and economic recession. It explores the collapse of the previous coalition, the rise of extremist forces, current polling trends, and the looming challenge of forming a stable government. The analysis also considers the implications for Germany’s future role in Europe under potential new leadership.

Centre research.

Ukraine’s Great Game: Trump’s Gambit, Putin’s Play, Europe’s Gamble

This report examines the multifaceted geopolitical dynamics surrounding Ukraine, a nation now at the center of an extended conflict that has evolved into a high-stakes diplomatic and strategic contest. The analysis focuses on the divergent strategies pursued by key players—Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, European leaders—and Ukraine’s own position amid these pressures.

Centre blog.

Cultural Appropriation of Kyrgyz Ornaments by a Russian Business

This article examines the controversy surrounding the Russian fashion brand YAKA, which has been accused of cultural appropriation for using Kyrgyz national ornaments in its designs. The issue sparked a heated debate on Kyrgyz social media, with concerns over misrepresentation, copyright claims, and the exploitation of cultural heritage. While YAKA insists it aims to popularize Kyrgyz traditions, critics argue that it profits from national symbols without proper recognition of Kyrgyz artisans. The scandal has drawn international attention, highlighting broader discussions on intellectual property rights, cultural respect, and the commercialization of ethnic designs.

Centre blog.

Ukraine Peace Talks: U.S. Move, European Concerns & Ukrainian Resistance

This report analyzes the evolving dynamics of peace talks on the war in Ukraine, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It examines the reactions of key stakeholders, including Ukraine, Russia, and the European Union, highlighting the tensions surrounding U.S. unilateralism, Europe’s exclusion from the talks, and Ukraine’s demand for security guarantees. The report also explores the broader implications for transatlantic relations and European security.

Centre blog.

Trump’s Renewed "Maximum Pressure" with Iran

This report analyzes President Donald Trump's reinstatement of his "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, focusing on the renewed sanctions and his preference for a diplomatic resolution to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. It examines the contrasting positions of the U.S. and Iran, exploring the economic and geopolitical dynamics at play, as well as the potential for negotiations amid rising tensions.

Centre blog.

Geopolitical Shifts: Ukraine, Rare Earths, and Global Power Dynamics

This report explores the evolving geopolitical landscape of the Ukraine conflict, focusing on key military, diplomatic, and economic developments. It examines U.S. President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy, particularly his proposal for Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources in exchange for continued military aid. The report also delves into Ukraine’s ongoing counter-offensives, Russia’s strategic advances in Donbass, and the broader international involvement, including shifts in U.S.-Russia relations and the European Union’s unity. Additionally, the report highlights the role of energy, economic resilience, and global competition in shaping the conflict’s future trajectory.

Centre blog.

Rwanda's Shadow War: How M23's Takeover of Goma is Reshaping Africa

This article delves into the escalating crisis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group has seized control of Goma and continues its territorial expansion. It explores the historical roots of the conflict, Rwanda’s strategic interests in eastern Congo, and the role of regional and international actors in shaping the response. The report highlights the devastating humanitarian toll, the geopolitical stakes, and the failure of diplomatic interventions, raising concerns about a potential wider regional war. As tensions rise, the article examines whether global powers will take decisive action or allow Rwanda’s influence to reshape the Great Lakes region.

Centre blog.

Russia’s Fragile War Effort: Strategic Vulnerabilities and Global Implications

This report examines Russia's economic and geopolitical vulnerabilities amidst its ongoing war in Ukraine. Highlighting key challenges such as inflation, labor shortages, currency instability, and reliance on a shadow fleet for oil exports, it underscores the unsustainability of Russia’s war economy. The report advocates for intensified economic sanctions, stricter maritime enforcement, and sustained military aid to Ukraine as essential measures to weaken Russia’s war efforts and compel a shift toward diplomacy and peace.

Centre blog.

Trump’s Bold Gambit: Redrawing the Middle East Chessboard

This report explores the transformative role of Donald Trump’s diplomacy in the Middle East, focusing on his influence in brokering key ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon ahead of his second term as U.S. President. It delves into the challenges of Gaza’s post-war reconstruction, the fragile dynamics of its governance, and the broader implications for regional alliances, including a potential Saudi-Israeli normalization deal. The analysis highlights the interplay of political, economic, and diplomatic forces reshaping the region while addressing the risks of empowering hardline actors and the obstacles to achieving lasting peace.

Centre blog.

The End of Ukrainian Gas Transit and the Energy Crisis in Moldova

This report explores the geopolitical impact of Russia's halt of gas transit through Ukraine, focusing on the resulting energy crisis in Moldova and Transnistria. It analyzes Moscow's strategic use of energy supplies to weaken pro-Western governments and reshape regional dynamics, highlighting the political challenges Moldova faces ahead of critical elections in 2025.

Centre blog.

Geopolitical Analysis of the Azerbaijan Airlines Plane Crash in Kazakhstan

This report provides a comprehensive geopolitical analysis of the Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25, 2024. It examines the technical, geopolitical, and aviation safety factors surrounding the incident, including allegations of Russian air defense involvement, its impact on regional relations, and broader implications for aviation security in conflict zones. The report consolidates findings from multiple sources and highlights the critical interplay between civil aviation and military operations in volatile regions.

Centre blog.

Unmasking OCCRP: Investigative Giant or U.S. Government Tool?

This article delves into the intricate relationship between the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) and the U.S. government, as revealed by a Mediapart investigation. It highlights the ethical challenges posed by OCCRP’s heavy reliance on U.S. funding, including restrictions on investigating U.S. interests and the influence of external pressures on its operations. The piece also explores the leadership of Drew Sullivan, OCCRP’s co-founder, and examines high-profile cases like Bechtel, showcasing the broader implications for investigative journalism’s independence and credibility.

Centre research.

François Bayrou Grapples with Leadership and Political Challenges

This article explores the early days of François Bayrou as France's new Prime Minister, highlighting the political challenges he faces, including forming a government, addressing a humanitarian crisis in Mayotte, and navigating criticism from opposition parties. Bayrou’s leadership style, his approach to coalition-building, and his efforts to balance competing priorities are examined as he prepares to deliver his policy vision and tackle France's pressing issues.

Centre research.

Political Crisis in Georgia - Current Developments, Causes, Reactions, & Outlook

This report examines Georgia's escalating political crisis following the controversial election of Mikheil Kavelashvili as president through an indirect electoral college system dominated by the ruling Georgian Dream party. It explores the root causes, including allegations of electoral fraud, democratic backsliding, and the postponement of EU accession talks, which have fueled nationwide protests. The report highlights strong international condemnation, including sanctions and diplomatic pressure from Western allies, and analyzes the potential outcomes, ranging from continued authoritarian consolidation to possible concessions under sustained public and international pressure. Georgia's future remains uncertain, with its democratic and European aspirations at stake.

Centre blog.

Iran’s Asymmetric Warfare Strategy: Evolution, Achievements, and Challenges

This analytical piece examines Iran's asymmetric warfare strategy, a pivotal component of its regional and global ambitions. Tracing its origins to the aftermath of the 1979 revolution and the Iran-Iraq War, the article explores how Tehran crafted this approach to offset its conventional military weaknesses. It delves into the design, goals, and successes of this strategy, including the use of proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, as well as its reliance on hybrid tactics such as missile development and cyber operations. The article critically assesses the recent challenges faced by Iran, including the weakening of its proxies, economic constraints, and shifting regional dynamics, offering insights into the future viability of its strategy in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

Centre blog.

The Fall of Bashar al-Assad and Its Implications

This article explores the dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, detailing the final days of his dictatorship and the factors leading to his ousting after more than five decades of Assad family rule. It examines the swift rebel offensive that dismantled the regime, Assad's escape to Moscow, and the challenges facing post-Assad Syria, including sectarian tensions, political uncertainty, and the risk of regional instability. The piece also highlights international reactions and the potential consequences for Syria's future governance and reconstruction.

Centre blog.

The Collapse of Assad’s Hold? Syria at a Critical Juncture Amid Renewed Conflict

This article explores the resurgence of conflict in Syria, highlighting the rapid territorial gains by opposition forces and the vulnerabilities of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. It delves into Assad’s defensive strategies, the roles of key regional players like Russia, Iran, and Turkey, and the humanitarian impact of the renewed violence. The piece examines potential scenarios for Syria’s future, including regime collapse, prolonged conflict, or regional mediation, while questioning the stability of Assad’s hold on power.

Centre blog.

"Transparency and Visa Policies May Spur Anti-Chinese Sentiments in Kyrgyzstan"

The article highlights growing public distrust and anti-Chinese sentiments in Kyrgyzstan due to a lack of transparency in joint projects with China, including the construction of the 'Manas' trade-logistical town and a waste-to-energy plant. Concerns over limited public access to contract details, cultural insensitivity, and the use of arable land for projects exacerbate tensions. The introduction of a visa-free regime for Chinese citizens further fuels skepticism, as it lacks reciprocity and public consultation. Despite China's status as Kyrgyzstan's top trading partner, these developments emphasize the need for greater transparency and local involvement to address public concerns and foster trust in bilateral relations.

Centre blog.

The Renewed Battle for Syria: Regional Perspectives on the Aleppo Offensive

This article explores the resurgence of violence in Syria's civil war, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leading a major offensive in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. It examines the strategic gains of the rebels, the Syrian army's counteroffensive with Russian and Iranian support, and the geopolitical implications involving Turkey, Russia, and Iran. The article highlights the humanitarian toll and the complex interplay of regional and international actors shaping Syria's conflict, emphasizing the fragile stability and uncertainty of the country's future.

Centre blog.

"Digitalization and Government in Action: Insights from Minister N.A. Kutnaeva"

The article reflects on a lecture by Nuria Kutnaeva, the Minister of Digital Development of Kyrgyzstan, on the nation's digitalization efforts. Held at the OSCE Academy on October 15, 2024, the lecture emphasized digital transformation's role in enhancing government efficiency and citizen services in Kyrgyzstan. Kutnaeva shared updates on various digitalization initiatives, including online residence registration, significant reductions in paperwork, and queue management improvements via artificial intelligence (AI). For instance, the SMEV "Tunduk" system has facilitated over 3 billion data exchanges between government agencies, connecting over 1,300 services and 1.7 million users.

Centre blog.

Trump's Historic Win and Its Global Impact: A New Era for America and the World

This article examines Donald Trump’s historic return to the U.S. presidency, highlighting his “America First” approach and its implications for global alliances, trade, and security. Trump’s win signals a shift toward nationalism and isolationism, raising concerns among allies and inspiring populist movements worldwide. As America refocuses on self-interest, the global order faces potential disruptions in diplomacy and economic stability.

Centre blog.

WHAT IS THE ROLE OF KYRGYZSTAN IN THE ORGANIZATION OF TURKISH STATES?

The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) is an organization that unites most of the Turkic-speaking countries, starting from the Mediterranean Sea and covering a number of countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia. The role and influence of resource-rich Kyrgyzstan in many international organizations is growing day by day. Usually, rich and big countries dominate and take the main role in international regional organizations, but the participation of each member of the organization is of great importance in OTS. Kyrgyzstan also has deep historical, cultural and linguistic ties with other Turkic-speaking countries that are members of the organization, and is playing an increasingly important role.

Centre blog.

The Death of Yahya Sinwar: Impact on the Middle East

This article examines the impact of Yahya Sinwar's death on the Middle East. As the leader of Hamas and the mastermind behind the deadly October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, Sinwar's demise leaves Hamas without leadership and Gaza in chaos. The article explores the leadership vacuum within Hamas, the potential for a ceasefire, and the possibility of de-escalation in the region. It also highlights the broader implications of Sinwar’s death on Israel, Iran, and other regional actors, offering a fragile opportunity for peace amidst ongoing conflict.

Centre blog.

Joint Efforts of India and Central Asia on Counter-Terrorism

This article highlights the growing counter-terrorism collaboration between India and Central Asian countries, driven by shared concerns over the rise of extremist groups like Hizbut Tahrir and ISIS. It discusses recent arrests in both regions, the outcomes of the SCO Summit's Astana Declaration, and India's efforts to strengthen security partnerships to combat terrorism and extremism, particularly in response to the expanding influence of ISIS-Khorasan Province.

Centre blog.

Israel's Covert War with Hizbullah Escalates Amid Pager Explosions

Israel is believed to have launched a covert operation targeting Hezbollah’s communications devices, resulting in a series of explosions in Lebanon and Syria on September 17-18. These attacks killed at least 32 people and injured thousands, dealing a major blow to Hezbollah’s infrastructure. The devices—pagers and radios—used by Hezbollah to avoid Israeli surveillance were secretly sabotaged, causing them to detonate almost simultaneously.

Centre blog.

Zangezur Corridor: A Geopolitical Flashpoint in the South Caucasus

The proposed Zangezur Corridor, a transport route connecting mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory, has emerged as a major geopolitical issue in the South Caucasus, drawing intense reactions from key regional players, particularly Russia and Iran. Russia, citing a 2020 ceasefire agreement, supports the corridor's opening and wants its security to be managed by the Russian Federal Security Service. However, Iran views the corridor as a "red line," fearing it will reduce its strategic influence in regional cargo transit and shift the balance of power toward Turkey and Azerbaijan. Iranian officials have expressed concerns over Russia's stance, perceiving it as a betrayal of their longstanding alliance. Iran’s opposition has prompted questions about a possible shift in its regional policy, potentially moving closer to the West while distancing itself from Moscow. Despite this tension, the corridor presents opportunities for cooperation, potentially enhancing regional connectivity and trade. The future of the Zangezur Corridor remains uncertain, with its outcome poised to significantly impact the geopolitical dynamics of the South Caucasus.

Centre blog.

"Behind Closed Doors: Michael Bloomberg's Shadowy Grip on WHO Policy and Power"

Michael Bloomberg exerts considerable influence within the World Health Organization (WHO) despite lacking an official role on its management board. Serving as WHO's Global Ambassador for Noncommunicable Diseases and Injuries and a substantial financial contributor, Bloomberg enhances his impact within the organization. His status as a prominent media figure and one of the world's wealthiest individuals further amplifies his influence, enabling him to shape decision-making processes within WHO. Strategically leveraging his affiliation with WHO, Bloomberg not only seeks to enhance his personal and organizational reputation but also actively engages in challenging competitors and solidifying his legacy. His involvement in global health initiatives complements his business interests, particularly through the Bloomberg Terminal, a critical data aggregation platform in global financial markets that underpins his wealth accumulation. Bloomberg's ties with WHO afford him access to crucial health data, particularly from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where governance gaps provide avenues for influencing political leadership through partnerships with NGOs, lobby groups, and businesses. This strategic approach not only aligns with his financial interests but also extends his global impact, shaping public health policies and practices in diverse international contexts.

Centre research.

"Who is the best president of Kyrgyzstan?"

The text explores the challenges of teaching modern Kyrgyz history, particularly when discussing who the "best president of Kyrgyzstan" is. It highlights that due to the complex and often contentious political landscape, educators should provide balanced information to allow students to form their own opinions.

Centre research.

"Kyrgyzstan-India Ties Boost Business Opportunities"

Kyrgyzstan and India share a deep cultural history and strong political ties, leading to new business opportunities. The strategic partnership between the two countries, formalized during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 2019 visit, has boosted trade, investment, and cooperation across multiple sectors. Key areas of opportunity include agriculture, textiles, hydropower, tourism, and digital development. Both countries are working on enhancing direct banking relationships to facilitate smoother transactions, and there is significant potential for investment in Kyrgyzstan's natural resources, energy sector, and emerging markets like ICT and renewable energy.

Centre blog.

India Drives Innovation and Growth in SCO Start-up Forum

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted India's pivotal role in advancing the economic agenda of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) through initiatives like the SCO Start-up Forum. With over 130,000 start-ups, including 100 unicorns, India is a leading global start-up ecosystem. Set to host the fifth SCO start-up forum in January 2025, India aims to foster collaboration among SCO nations. India's digital public infrastructure, such as Aadhaar and UPI, has revolutionized the start-up landscape and been adopted by several countries. Key areas of innovation include health tech and pharmaceuticals, with significant exports to Central Asia. Indian start-ups have opportunities for joint ventures with Central Asian nations, enhancing quality control and digitization. India's expertise supports SCO countries in expanding social and financial assistance, creating a global network of innovation and entrepreneurship.

Centre blog.

China’s strategic influence in Central Asia intensified, case of Kyrgyzstan

The geopolitical landscape in Central Asia has shifted significantly post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with China rapidly filling the resulting power vacuum. This shift is particularly evident in Kyrgyzstan, where China's economic influence has surged, with trade turnover rising from $737 million in 2021 to over $4 billion in 2022. Major projects, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway and various investments in energy, agriculture, and infrastructure, have been announced. While these developments offer substantial economic growth opportunities for Kyrgyzstan, they also bring potential risks, such as high-interest Chinese loans and concerns about transparency and labor conditions, requiring careful management to ensure sustainable benefits.

Centre blog.

Azerbaijan-Kyrgyzstan Strengthen Bilateral Ties through Key Agreements

The visit of President Sadyr Zhaparov of Kyrgyzstan to Azerbaijan marked a significant step in strengthening bilateral ties between the two nations. Key agreements were signed, including a Joint Declaration and a Memorandum of Understanding on energy cooperation, highlighting their commitment to deepening strategic relations. Discussions also emphasized cooperation in trade, investment, and transportation. The visit showcased Azerbaijan's role in hosting regional events and commemorating shared cultural heritage. Additionally, agreements were reached on education cooperation, with Azerbaijan offering study opportunities for Kyrgyz citizens. Overall, the visit underscored the determination of both countries to enhance partnership and unlock economic potential for mutual benefit.

Centre blog.

Central Asia-India energy cooperation

This article delves into the burgeoning partnership between India and Central Asia, focusing particularly on energy cooperation and its potential to deepen bilateral relations. Highlighting India's strategic interest in the region's abundant energy resources, including hydrocarbons and renewables, it emphasizes India's efforts to diversify its energy sources and secure its energy future. The piece underscores the significance of Central Asia as a crucial energy hub and outlines challenges such as connectivity issues and the need for infrastructural development. With insights from the inaugural India-Central Asia Summit and prospects for collaboration in areas like renewable energy and nuclear cooperation, the article paints a picture of evolving ties between the two regions driven by mutual interests and economic imperatives.

Centre blog.

India-Central Asia can cooperate on agriculture sector for food security

The article explores the potential for cooperation between India and Central Asian nations in the agriculture sector to enhance food security in the region. It highlights the existing reliance of Central Asian countries on imported food items and agricultural resources, with significant portions sourced from Russia. The importance of trade relationships with Russia and intra-regional agricultural food trade is emphasized. Despite challenges, Central Asia is progressing towards achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 of Zero Hunger. However, issues such as sustainable agriculture and natural resource management remain critical for food security and rural welfare. The article suggests prioritizing land and forest management, enhancing resource efficiency, and promoting sustainable farming practices to achieve economic, social, and environmental benefits. Streamlining border procedures, creating agricultural clusters, and improving road connectivity are identified as key steps to overcome obstacles to cooperation. Conservation agriculture is proposed as a promising solution to increase agronomic yield while safeguarding natural resources. India is positioned to share its expertise in conservation agriculture with Central Asian countries. The article also discusses the importance of research and development in conservation agriculture and the potential impact of such technologies on production costs, yields, water efficiency, climate resilience, and soil health. Overall, the article advocates for collaboration between India and Central Asia to enhance agricultural productivity and food security in the region.

Centre blog.

Unmasking Smoke: Assessing the Effectiveness of the Bloomberg Tobacco Campaign

The Global Tobacco Campaign led by Michael Bloomberg through the Bloomberg Initiative has been both lauded and criticized for its efforts to combat tobacco use globally. With a pledge of $1.58 billion since 2005, Bloomberg's initiative has aimed to reduce tobacco consumption in low and middle-income countries. However, questions have been raised about the motivations behind Bloomberg's campaign, with critics citing concerns about financial influence on policy decisions and potential conflicts of interest. Criticism has also been directed at Bloomberg's advocacy tactics, including accusations of paternalism and infringement on personal freedoms through policies such as outdoor smoking bans and raising the legal age for tobacco purchase. Despite Bloomberg's success as a businessman and politician, his methods in combating tobacco use have faced skepticism and scrutiny. Criticism extends to Bloomberg's lobbying efforts within international health organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO) and his influence on global tobacco control policies. While Bloomberg's philanthropic contributions have supported initiatives to reduce tobacco use, concerns linger about undue influence and conflicts of interest. The Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids has undertaken targeted efforts to address tobacco control in Central Asia, focusing on legislative advocacy and media campaigns. However, transparency issues regarding funding sources and policy advocacy strategies have raised doubts about the effectiveness and credibility of these initiatives. In conclusion, while the Bloomberg Initiative's Global Tobacco Campaign has mobilized resources and attention toward combating tobacco use globally and in Central Asian countries, critical questions remain about its effectiveness, transparency, and impact.

Centre research.

E-Commerce Landscape: Lessons from India and Opportunities for Central Asia

This paper examines the burgeoning Indian e-commerce sector and its potential to serve as a model for Central Asian countries seeking to develop their own digital economies. The analysis explores the factors that have propelled India's e-commerce growth, including a rapidly expanding internet user base, increasing smartphone penetration, and affordable data plans. It then contrasts this scenario with the current state of e-commerce in Central Asia, highlighting both existing opportunities and key challenges.

Centre blog.

Kyrgyzstan-China (XUAR) Business Forum and its takeaways

The Kyrgyzstan-China (XUAR - Xinjiang-Uygur Autonomous Region) Business Forum held on April 2nd in Bishkek showcased a significant stride in bilateral economic cooperation. Key takeaways from the event include agreements totaling over 1 billion US dollars for various beneficial projects, highlighting Chinese companies' interest in small to medium-sized ventures, particularly in alternative energy resources.

Centre blog.

India’s fintech sector gains global popularity, CA region can benefit from it

India's fintech landscape, ranked as the third-largest on a global scale, is anticipated to achieve an annual revenue of $70 billion by FY30, constituting 18–20 per cent of the addressable financial services revenue pool.

Centre blog.

Unveiling the Unjust Campaign Against Indian Pharmaceutical Industry

The article "Unveiling the Unjust Campaign Against Indian Pharmaceutical Industry" sheds light on the unjust portrayal of the Indian pharmaceutical sector, renowned for providing affordable healthcare solutions worldwide. Despite its crucial role, recent publications have attempted to tarnish its reputation by questioning the quality and safety of Indian medications. The narrative began with reports of 'substandard' Indian medicines being recalled by the US, sparking concerns about the reliability of Indian pharmaceutical products. However, a deeper examination reveals a broader campaign that has been ongoing for years. Key incidents, such as the tragic deaths of children in Gambia allegedly linked to Indian cough syrup, have been sensationalized and misconstrued. Investigations later revealed that the deaths were not directly caused by the medicine, but rather by sanitation and water issues. Similar misleading narratives emerged from other regions, creating a global perception of questionable Indian medicine quality. Prominent activist Dinesh Thakur, through the Thakur Family Foundation, funded organizations and media outlets that propagated anti-Indian pharma narratives. Especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, biased reporting funded by Thakur's foundation has accentuated flaws in Indian medicine and vaccines while downplaying successes from other countries. This campaign not only undermines the credibility of the Indian pharmaceutical industry but also seeks to discredit India's contributions to global healthcare. It underscores the importance of critical media analysis in discerning truth from propaganda in today's interconnected world.

Centre blog.

Oversight Concerns Surrounding Chinese Gold Mining Operations in Kyrgyzstan

This article delves into the dynamics of China's significant role as a key importer of Kyrgyz gold and its active participation in the country's extractive industries. While the surge in gold exports presents economic opportunities for Kyrgyzstan, concerns loom regarding the operations of Chinese companies, particularly in terms of conflicts, environmental impact, and operational openness. The piece explores notable cases, such as the Kichi Chaarat CJSC incident, shedding light on the delicate balance between economic gains and environmental sustainability. Government measures and recommendations are also discussed, highlighting the evolving landscape and the need for robust regulatory mechanisms to ensure the responsible and transparent conduct of Chinese gold mining activities in Kyrgyzstan.

Centre blog.

Central Asian countries’ visa exemption policy towards Chinese citizens

Central Asian countries have been increasingly extending visa exemptions to Chinese citizens, raising concerns about potential repercussions in the region. Notably, Kyrgyzstan has taken steps towards this trend, allowing Chinese citizens with valid visas from developed Western nations to enter the country for a limited period. However, this move is viewed by some as a precursor to a comprehensive visa exemption policy, a decision that could have far-reaching consequences. This article delves into the unfolding dynamics of Central Asian countries' visa policies towards China, exploring the potential risks and implications, particularly in fostering anti-China sentiments among the local population.

Centre research.

China's Inroads into Kyrgyzstan's Coal Mining: Agreements & Concerns

Kyrgyzstan's reliance on coal prompts collaborations between Kyrgyzkomur and Chinese companies to develop major coal fields and establish logistics centers near the Kyrgyz-Chinese border. Despite potential benefits, concerns arise over the distribution of extracted coal, with 70% going to Chinese investors and 30% to Kyrgyzstan. Local sentiments and past disruptions add complexity to the situation. Additionally, the article raises concerns about Kyrgyzstan's potential indebtedness to China. The decline in Mongolian coal supplies to China underscores China's pursuit of alternative sources, with Kyrgyzstan offering a potential solution. The article emphasizes the need to balance both nations' interests and protect the rights of Kyrgyz consumers in this evolving collaboration.

Centre research.

Kyrgyzstan's Shift: From Sending Migrants Abroad to Attracting Foreign Labor

In the midst of global economic transformations, Kyrgyzstan, traditionally recognized as a country sending migrants abroad, is undergoing a notable shift. The nation faces a critical challenge in its sewing industry—a surge in demand for Kyrgyz products has led to a shortage of skilled workers. In response, the Kyrgyz government is turning to a solution that contrasts with its historical role: attracting foreign labor. This article explores the unfolding scenario, examining the government's plans, initiatives, and the dynamics surrounding the move to address the pressing workforce shortage in the country's light industry.

Centre research.

War in Ukraine: How It's Affecting Kyrgyz Migrants in Russia?

While almost one-third of Kyrgyz citizens are dispersed globally, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a significant decrease in Kyrgyz labor migrants in Russia. The Ministry of Labor reports a 30% decline, prompting Kyrgyz migrants to explore new destinations, particularly in the West. Migration patterns are shifting towards the USA, Europe, and developed Asian countries.

Centre research.

Ramadan month: a good chance for peaceful dialogue in pre-election Türkiye?

The author suggests that the month of Ramadan presents an opportunity for Erdogan's government in Turkey to initiate a dialogue with opposition parties and build lasting peace within the country before the upcoming May elections. The society seems divided and fractured due to the devastating February earthquakes and continuous economic hardships, which have increased inflation rates. Erdogan's government has not taken bold steps to consolidate all political actors and initiate much-needed dialogue within the country for the sake of ordinary people who are affected by earthquakes and economic hardships. The article emphasizes the need for strategic dialogue and action, including amnesty for political prisoners, to bring lasting peace and stability to Turkey. The government needs to act in the interest of all parties and people to ensure fair and just elections and provide a trustful platform for peace in the post-election period of the country.

Centre blog.

The role of LNG in the EU Energy Market in the post Russia-Ukraine war

The impact of the LNG in ensuring the EU energy security in the post-Ukraine war

Centre blog.

How partial military mobilization order might affect Kyrgyz people in Russia?

Impact of partial military mobilization process in Russia on Kyrgyz people

Centre research.

What are the current constraints on Russia's economic modernisation?

Despite the Yegor Gaidar’s “shock therapy” reforms right after the collapse of the Soviet Union or Dmitriy Medvedev’s determination to modernise Russia’s economic system during his presidency, the country still hasn’t managed to overcome the challenges associated with the economic modernisation process.

Centre research.

History as a key to Vladimir Putin’s politics

Since becoming the President of the Russian Federation, Putin to a greater extent utilised symbols and glorious moments from various periods of Russian history to address the ideological and moral challenges faced by Russians after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Although, Putin’s Russia has no official ideology and the Russian constitution bans the employment of the ideology by the state.

Centre research.

What is the contribution of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in security?

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, five independent states have emerged in Central Asia; Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, with insufficient statehood experience, with lack of national ideology and with weak security institutions those states posed a security threat to the regional stability

Centre research.